Ecological niche modeling of potential West Nile virus vector mosquito species in Iowa
1GeoInformatics Training, Research, Education, and Extension Center, Geography Department, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, IA, USA
2Department of Entomology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
Abstract
Ecological niche modeling (ENM) algorithms, Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling (Maxent) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), were used to develop models in Iowa for three species of mosquito – two significant, extant West Nile virus (WNV) vectors (Culex pipiens L and Culex tarsalis Coquillett (Diptera: Culicidae)), and the nuisance mosquito, Aedes vexans Meigen (Diptera: Culicidae), a potential WNV bridge vector. Occurrence data for the three mosquito species from a state-wide arbovirus surveillance program were used in combination with climatic and landscape layers. Maxent successfully created more appropriate niche models with greater accuracy than GARP. The three Maxent species’ models were combined and the average values were statistically compared to human WNV incidence at the census block group level. The results showed that the Maxent-modeled species’ niches averaged together were a useful indicator of WNV human incidence in the state of Iowa. This simple method for creating probability distribution maps proved useful for understanding WNV dynamics and could be applied to the study of other vector-borne diseases.
Keywords: Aedes vexans, Culex pipiens, Culex tarsalis, GARP, Maxent, predictive maps
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; ENM, Ecological niche modeling; WNV, West Nile virus; GARP,
Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction; Maxent, Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling; ROC, Receiver
operating characteristic
Correspondence:
ascotlars@uni.edu,
bjohn.degroote@uni.edu,
clyricb@iastate.edu,
d*sugu@uni.edu,
*Corresponding author
Associate Editor: Jay Rosenheim was editor of this paper.
Received: 19 December 2008 | Accepted: 24 July 2009 | Published: 13 July 2010
Copyright: This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.
ISSN: 1536-2442 | Volume 10, Number 110
Larson SR, DeGroote JP, Bartholomay LC, Sugumaran R. 2010. Ecological niche modeling of potential West Nile virus vector mosquito species in Iowa. Journal of Insect Science 10:110, available online: insectscience.org/10.110
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